Clinton, Obama, McCain, Romney Battle Coast-to-Coast - Yahoo! News

Clinton, Obama, McCain, Romney Battle Coast-to-Coast - Yahoo! News: "Clinton, Obama, McCain, Romney Battle Coast-to-Coast" Lorraine Woellert Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Voters in Georgia, where the first results are likely to emerge in today's 24-state presidential nominating process, may provide clues to the outcome of the Super Tuesday primaries. When polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, one sign will be whether Republican Mitt Romney, 60, is winning Georgia's evangelical Christian voters, a bloc he needs to continue his battle against Arizona Senator John McCain, 71. A loss in Georgia, one of Romney's stronger states, may presage a sweep for McCain. Georgia also looms large for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. The state's African-American population is as about as large proportionally as South Carolina's, where Obama won a 29 percentage point victory over Hillary Clinton. Obama wants to duplicate that success with a heavy turnout and overwhelming black voter support. For the next 90 minutes after polls close in Georgia, returns will come in from 10 states, including primaries in the Northeast. Anything other than victory for New York Senator Clinton in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Delaware would be a coup for Obama, an Illinois senator. ``If Clinton loses New Jersey, that's a huge, huge problem for her,'' said G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. ``We'll know almost immediately that she has a problem.'' Winner Takes All On the Republican side, former Governor Romney is banking on holding his home state of Massachusetts. McCain is favored in Connecticut and New Jersey, states that are important because they award delegates to the Republican National Convention on a winner-takes-all basis. Given that system in those states and in New York, McCain has said the Republican nomination may be settled today. Under Republican rules, it takes 1,191 delegates to secure the party's nomination. McCain has a chance to win a large number of delegates because more than 1,000 are at stake today. ``We might not have to wait until California to know whether McCain is having a good night,'' said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center in Washington. Delegate Math Democrats divide delegates by congressional district and by the candidate's proportion of the vote, making a sweep more difficult. Most experts predict that Clinton and Obama will come close to splitting the 1,681 delegates up for grabs in 22 states today. Under the Democrats' system, a candidate can lose a state's popular vote and accrue large numbers of delegates, even a majority; 2,025 are needed for nomination. ``There's a lot that we're going to find out about how this works today,'' Clinton said on ABC's ``Good Morning America'' program today. ``None of us really understand what the impact of all of these contests on one day will be for any of us.'' Obama, speaking on Fox News's ``Fox and Friends'' program, said today that he thinks he'll have ``a good night.'' ``I don't think it's going to be decisive because of the way Democrats apportion delegates,'' he said. ``We're very optimistic about our prospects for winning the nomination.'' Bellwether Other states where polls close at 8 p.m. include Missouri, which is closely contested in the Democratic race. On the Republican side, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, 52, is vying for support from social conservatives. Missouri, long a bellwether in presidential politics, has the racial and economic diversity to make it a microcosm of the country. Huckabee is also considered a factor in the primary in Tennessee, where polls close at 8 p.m. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, campaigned in Tennessee in the past week and she had a substantial lead in recent polls. A half hour after the polls close in Tennessee, the voting ends in Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas, where his wife has a broad network of support. Clinton leads Obama 59 percent to 37 percent among Tennessee Democrats, an American Research Group poll taken Feb. 3-4 found. Among Republicans, Huckabee received 36 percent support, followed by McCain at 30 percent and Romney at 27 percent. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Home States Also closing at 8 p.m. will be Illinois, Obama's home state, followed an hour later by New York. Obama, 46, and Clinton, 60, have secure bases at home. The telling sign will be who wins the home state by a larger margin. McCain is favored in New York and Illinois as well as in Arizona, a state he has represented in the Senate for more than two decades. In Arizona, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time, the Democratic race is close. At 11 p.m. New York time, all eyes will be on California, the most populous state and today's biggest prize, with 370 delegates awarded in the Democratic race and 170 in the Republican contest. McCain has won the endorsement of the state's governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Obama has been chipping away at Clinton's margin in California, though Clinton may have captured a greater proportion of voters who cast their ballots early. California allows voting weeks in advance. Close Contests An ARG California survey shows the top candidates in both parties locked in close races. Clinton leads Obama 49 to 45 percent among the state's Democrats. Among California Republicans, Romney had 37 percent support and McCain received 35 percent. Both results are within the margin of error. The nine caucus states will trickle in through the night, with Alaska voters dispersing by 1:30 a.m. Obama has invested time and money in caucus states such as North Dakota, New Mexico, Alaska, Kansas, Minnesota and Idaho. ``I was laughing when I saw he was in Idaho,'' said Ronald Platt, an Obama supporter and longtime Democratic Party activist. ``But they've got caucuses. Most people feel he's going to win Idaho just like he's going to win Alaska.'' If McCain wins most of the states where he's favored, he may become the overwhelming favorite to secure the Republican nomination, leaving the Democratic race unsettled. ``The nominating battle between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama is likely going to continue'' well past Super Tuesday and ``certainly through the primaries of March 4,'' Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communication director, said yesterday. After today, the Republicans and Democrats will compete in primary contests into June. Democrats hold their nominating convention in August and Republicans have theirs in September. -- With reporting from Nicholas Johnston in Charleston, West Virginia, Julianna Goldman in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Heidi Przybyla in New Haven, Connecticut, Hans Nichols in Newark, New Jersey, Christopher Stern and Nadine Elsibai in Washington. Editors: Joe Sobczyk, Bill Schmick. To contact the reporter on this story: Lorraine Woellert in Washington at lwoellert@bloomberg.net .