Republican hopefuls chasing Democrats' Hillary Clinton

Republican hopefuls chasing Democrats' Hillary Clinton: "Republican hopefuls chasing Democrats' Hillary Clinton" Arizona Sen. John McCain insists that he is the Clinton stopper.The Republican's independent streak appeals to a wide range of voters, making him the best GOP choice to battle Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, he and his supporters say. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani says his national reputation will attract more mainstream votes. That potential has led many conservatives to overlook his moderate-to-liberal views on social issues, such as abortion and gay rights Other Republicans are presenting themselves as Clinton stoppers, taking frequent verbal shots at the former first lady, who energizes conservative GOP voters in visceral opposition.Despite the candidates' bravado, the Republican Party is in a predicament. Its nominee faces an uphill fight against Clinton or any other Democrat because of the Iraq war, a precarious economy and, perhaps most important, President Bush's unpopularity. With the race still fluid, Republican hopefuls are selling their electability to GOP voters. That often translates into: "I can beat Hillary."It's true that Clinton no longer is viewed as the guaranteed nominee. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, her chief rival, recently rose in Iowa and New Hampshire, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina remains a strong third. But Clinton remains solidly ahead in national polls. She appeals strongly to many women voters. She is well-financed, well-organized and battle-seasoned from her experience as a New York senator and as a first lady in a White House that was scandal-prone but also associated with prosperity and peace.Many Democrats think she is the most electable from their party. GOP candidates seem to agree; each uses her aura of inevitability to enlist conservative voters to his cause."That sort of falls into the 'Be careful what you ask for' category," said Jon McHenry, a GOP pollster in Alexandria, Va. "She may galvanize the Republican base, but she, as a candidate, and her campaign, as an organization, are probably best able to handle the rigors of a general election." Underdog Republicans Two terms of a controversial Republican presidency and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war have led to a political fatigue that most analysts agree favors the Democrats. It applies especially to front-runners Clinton, Obama and Edwards.Independent voters, who are pivotal in the general election, are trending in polls toward Democrats. A souring economy could prove yet another Republican liability next year. Adding to the GOP's woes are fissures in its voter base. Many Republicans bucked Bush on immigration reform and remain disenchanted over the issue. Religious conservatives had splintered over the candidates and only recently started rallying behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Democratic candidates have raised more money than their Republican counterparts.The outlook could change. But Republicans might need a major break to push them into the forefront - a clear turning point in the war, a Middle East peace breakthrough or the capture of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, for example. "It's difficult to come up with a scenario that puts the Republicans in the catbird seat by mid-October 2008," said Jeremy Mayer, an associate professor in the school of public policy at George Mason University in Virginia. "Could happen, but it would take a lot." Clinton leads Republicans Iowa's caucuses, which are Jan. 3, have turned competitive, making Clinton seem vulnerable. Obama is first, Clinton second and Edwards a close third in some recent polls in that crucial early state.But don't expect Republicans to take their sights off Clinton, who brings the highest negative ratings of any candidate to the race.McCain in particular sees opportunity and is touting his poll numbers against Clinton, though in every case it's close. In some hypothetical matchups, the Arizona Republican loses. An average of national surveys from Nov. 11 to Dec. 9, calculated by the RealClearPolitics Web site, gives Clinton a 1.7 percentage-point advantage over McCain, her closest GOP rival. "Senator Clinton leads Senator McCain in the polls because he would continue the failed Bush administration policies in Iraq while she would end the war," Clinton campaign spokesman Isaac Baker said in an e-mail. McCain's electability claim got a recent surprise boost from former President Bill Clinton."I think that McCain has a lot of appeal," Clinton said in an ABC TV interview with Barbara Walters. "I think that he seems to be making a little bit of a comeback. And we disagree on many things, but I think he's a big figure. So he might be the most electable."John Zogby, a national pollster based in New York, agreed that McCain's appeal to independents continues to set him apart from other Republicans.McCain, an early supporter of President Bush's troop surge in Iraq earlier this year, also benefits from recent signs that the strategy is working."McCain doesn't seem to be the Don Quixote of a failed policy at the moment," Zogby said. McCain recently devoted an entire speech to sizing himself up against Clinton. He ticked off a list of philosophical and specific differences on foreign policy, tax reform, health care and other topics. "If I'm your nominee and if Senator Clinton is the nominee of the other party, the country will face as clear a choice as any in recent memory," McCain said in November at Franklin Pierce University in Rindge, N.H. In an Oct. 31 memo, Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, discussed his analysis of the firm SurveyUSA's polling in 14 states. "The data shows that McCain's strength against Hillary Clinton in the swing electoral states is stronger than Rudy Giuliani or any other GOP candidate," Davis wrote. "Only in solid blue states - less likely to vote Republican next November - does Giuliani outpace McCain."Davis told The Arizona Republic recently that polls suggest many voters appreciate McCain's "independence," and despite 24 years on Capitol Hill, he still is the most credible "change" agent in the race.For their part, Giuliani backers say their candidate is best suited to compete in the general election. The former New York City mayor's national reputation rests heavily on his widely praised response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. "He resonates with the American people," said Lisa James, Giuliani's Arizona state chairwoman. "And anybody you talk to, when you bring up the mayor, they are very excited about the possibility and they will say he can beat the Democratic nominee, whether it's Hillary or Obama." Mitt Romney's campaign also presents him in contrast to Clinton. The former Massachusetts governor has aired a TV commercial in which he ridicules Clinton for never even having "run a corner store." Still vulnerable As the primary season fast approaches, Davis said electability seems a less urgent issue than it was a short time ago. Many GOP voters have started weighing the Clinton juggernaut factor against social values and other priorities, a shift that could help explain Huckabee's rapid rise. Huckabee is an ordained Baptist minister.Davis acknowledged that Republicans could wake up on Jan. 4 after Iowa's caucuses and discover that a new Democratic front-runner has emerged, making Clinton less of a GOP focus.Her favorability ratings, for example, show her as vulnerable. A USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted Nov. 30 to Dec. 2 said that 50 percent of the public viewed Clinton unfavorably, compared with 47 percent favorably. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. But whoever is chosen by Democrats, he or she will head for November with a significant advantage: a party that isn't led by Bush, who continues to poll poorly."I don't think the American people want a third Bush term, but that's essentially what the McCain and the rest of the Republican field is offering," said Luis Miranda, a Democratic National Committee spokesman. Reach the reporter at dan .nowicki@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8275.